Metals show mixed performance, with LME and SHFE copper rising over 1%, while silicon metal and coking coal lead the declines. European container shipping rises over 7% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM July 1 News:

Metals Market:

As of the day session close, domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper led the gains with a 1.09% increase, SHFE tin rose 0.63%, while SHFE zinc led the losses with a 0.8% decline. Other metals experienced relatively small fluctuations. Alumina main contract fell 1.41%, while aluminum casting main contract rose 0.25%.

Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract gained 0.16%, polysilicon main contract dropped 2.39%, and silicon metal main contract declined 4.31%. The European shipping main contract surged 7.8%.

Within the ferrous metals series, most prices declined. Iron ore fell 1.32%, with HRC being the sole riser with a 0.06% gain. For coking coal and coke, coking coal dropped 3.32% and coke fell 2.46%.

In overseas markets, as of 15:06, most overseas base metals rose, with only LME lead and LME zinc declining - LME lead fell 0.12% and LME zinc dropped 0.53%. LME copper led gains with a 1.07% increase, while other metals saw limited fluctuations.Z7/>Precious metals: As of 15:06, COMEX gold rose 1.08% and COMEX silver gained 0.91%. Domestically, SHFE gold increased 1.47% and SHFE silver rose 1.11%.

Market snapshot as of 15:06 today

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Macro Front

Domestic Front:

[June Caixin China manufacturing PMI rises to 50.4, returning to expansion territory] The June Caixin China manufacturing PMI released today reached 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May and matching April's level, returning above the threshold. (Finance News)

►July 1 interbank foreign exchange market central parity rate: 1 US dollar to 7.1534 yuan

US Dollar:

As of 15:06, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 96.79, hovering near the 96.61 low since February 2022 reached earlier in the session. Goldman Sachs now projects the US Fed will implement three 25bps interest rate cuts this year, citing diminished tariff impacts and labour market weakness, revising from its previous forecast of one December cut. Investors are closely watching US labour market data, particularly Thursday's nonfarm payrolls report.

Macro Focus:

Today's releases include China's June Caixin manufacturing PMI, France/Germany/Eurozone/UK June SPGI manufacturing PMI finals, Eurozone June HICP annual rate (unadjusted preliminary), Eurozone June core HICP annual rate (unadjusted preliminary), US June SPGI manufacturing PMI final, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May JOLTs job openings, Mexico June SPGI manufacturing PMI, and other data.

Additionally, notable events include: July 1: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day holiday, with northbound and southbound trading suspended. Key speeches to monitor: 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee; ECB President Christine Lagarde; a panel discussion among major global central bank governors (Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong); and the ECB hosting the Sintra Forum on Central Banking.

Crude oil market:

As of 15:06, both WTI and Brent crude prices rose, with WTI up 0.11% and Brent up 0.16%. However, markets are digesting expectations of OPEC+ supply growth and renewed global trade uncertainties. The OPEC+ coalition is expected to increase oil production by 411,000 b/d in August, bringing total supply growth this year to 1.78 million b/d, exceeding 1.5% of global demand. If approved, this would raise OPEC's total supply growth to 1.78 million b/d in 2024, equivalent to over 1.5% of world oil demand. The OPEC+ alliance will convene on July 6.

ING commodity strategists stated: "Greater supply growth will keep global oil markets well-supplied through the remainder of the year. Expected balanced supply-demand conditions, combined with significant OPEC+ spare capacity, appear likely to reassure markets."

According to the EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly report, US crude output reached a record 13.47 million b/d in April, up from 13.45 million b/d in March. The EIA had previously estimated March production at 13.49 million b/d. Preliminary surveys released Monday forecast declines in US crude and distillate inventories last week, alongside rising gasoline supplies. Ahead of weekly inventory data, the average forecast from four analysts projects a 230,000-barrel draw in US crude stocks for the week ended June 27. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly report at 04:30 Beijing Time Wednesday, followed by the EIA's official data at 22:30 Beijing Time Wednesday. (Comprehensive coverage by Wenhua)

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